Release of World’s First Integrated Climate and Nature Scenario to 2050 for Investors

The Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) has launched FPS + Nature, (FPS+N) the first integrated nature and climate scenario published for use by investors.

FPS+N incorporates interrelated climate and nature trends to IPR’s flagship 1.8C Forecast Policy Scenario to create a realistic assessment to help investors respond to the climate and nature emergency.

FPS+N analyses forceful responses to both climate change and nature loss out to 2030 and 2050, grounded in existing and emerging policy action.

With calls to action and mandatory reporting of biodiversity-related risks gaining increasing global support, FPS+N provides investors and policymakers with a credible, high-conviction base demonstrating how the effects of both nature and climate policies could shape the future of land use.

IPR FPS+ N sees nature-related policies increasingly impacting the land use sector with effects filtering through the whole economy and interacting with climate action across, Food, Energy, Nature-related goods, service and assets and Supply chains and the global environment.

COP 15 in December foreshadowed a new wave of momentum towards protecting nature and halting global biodiversity loss with increased emphasis on public and private finance aligning financial flows with the Global Biodiversity Framework and the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity.

FPS+N incorporates additional policy levers that support the nature transition, land protection/restoration, and nature markets to help investors understand how the effects of both nature and climate policies could shape the future of land use.

It fills a crucial gap in conducting robust risk, and opportunity assessments, providing investors with a forward-looking view on how policy, technological and social trends could impact investment value drivers.

FPS+N forecasts growth in nature markets through formalisation of nature-related targets, creation of market infrastructure and that could support emergence of voluntary biodiversity credit markets, and potentially be integrated with NBS-based carbon markets. Revenue potential estimates from generation of biodiversity credits could be USD18 billion annually by 2050.

NBS could grow to reach US$22 billion in annual revenue in 2030, and US$204 billion in annual revenue in 2050, as corporates and governments pursue cost-effective carbon mitigation options that also produce nature co-benefits.

Commenting on the report, Mark Fulton, Project Director, Inevitable Policy Response said: “Biodiversity loss is fast emerging as a disaster that needs to be addressed now. The Inevitable Policy Response is unique in embedding biodiversity into a land scenario and interlinking with an energy scenario, all in a climate transition context.”

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